Calculating the House Edge for Different Craps Bets

Craps can look complicated because several wagers operate at once, each with its own winning conditions, payout and probability. The most useful way to compare them is to calculate the house edge: the casino’s mathematical advantage expressed as an expected percentage loss on the amount wagered over a large number of plays.

For Australian players, this distinction matters because casino games are encountered in a regulated and varied environment. Land-based casinos in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and other major cities operate under state or territory rules, while online casino-style services directed at Australians are generally restricted under the Interactive Gambling Act 2001. Understanding the maths helps separate game mechanics from advertising claims or assumptions about “lucky” bets.

The Basic House Edge Formula

The standard formula is:

House edge = 1 − expected return

To calculate expected return, multiply each possible result by its probability and its net payout, then add the results together. A simpler version for a wager with several outcomes is:

House edge = − expected profit per unit wagered

For example, if a bet has a 49.29% chance of winning $1 and a 47.93% chance of losing $1, with the remaining 2.78% producing a push, its expected loss can be calculated from all three outcomes. The result for a standard pass-line bet is approximately 1.41%.

The percentage describes a long-run average, not a prediction for one session. A player can win or lose heavily in a short period because random variation is substantial. This is related to volatility, which describes the size and frequency of swings rather than the underlying casino advantage; a useful overview of volatility in casino games helps keep those ideas separate.

Pass Line And Don’t Pass Bets

The pass-line bet wins when the come-out roll is 7 or 11, loses on 2, 3 or 12, and establishes a point on 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10. Once a point is set, the shooter must roll that number again before a 7 appears. Under standard rules, the house edge is about 1.41%.

The don’t-pass bet reverses much of this structure. It wins on 2 or 3, loses on 7 or 11, pushes on 12, and then wins if a 7 appears before the established point. That push on 12 slightly reduces its advantage, giving the casino a house edge of approximately 1.36%. A don’t-pass wager can therefore have a marginally lower edge than pass line, although the difference is small and the bet may feel less intuitive at a social table.

Come and don’t-come bets use the same mathematics after the come-out roll. Their house edges are also about 1.41% and 1.36%, respectively. These bets are often easier to assess than proposition wagers because their outcomes are governed by the established point-and-seven sequence.

Odds Bets And Combined Wagers

The odds bet is unusual because it pays true mathematical odds after a point is established. A $10 odds wager behind a point of 4 or 10 pays 2:1; behind 5 or 9 it pays 3:2; and behind 6 or 8 it pays 6:5. Since the payout matches the probability of the relevant point appearing before a seven, the odds bet has a 0% house edge.

A zero-edge wager does not make the whole craps strategy risk-free. The original pass-line or come bet still carries its 1.41% edge. To calculate the combined edge, divide the expected loss from the base bet by the total amount placed. For example, a $10 pass-line wager with $20 in odds has an expected loss of roughly 14.1 cents on the base bet, spread across $30 at risk. The blended edge is therefore approximately 0.47%, assuming the odds remain active.

Australian casino tables may set different maximum odds limits, such as 2x, 3x, 5x or higher. A higher odds allowance can reduce the blended percentage, but it also increases the amount exposed to fluctuations. The wager has no mathematical edge for the casino, yet it can still create larger dollar wins and losses.

Place, Field And Proposition Bets

Place bets win when a selected number appears before a seven. Their edges depend heavily on the number and payout. Place 6 and 8 commonly carry an edge of about 1.52%, while place 5 and 9 are around 4.00%. Place 4 and 10 are usually about 6.67% when paid at 9:5. The “buy” version can improve the maths, but a commission is normally charged and the exact edge depends on the casino’s rounding rules.

Field bets resolve on the next roll. On a standard layout, 2 and 12 pay 2:1, while 3, 4, 9, 10 and 11 pay 1:1. The bet loses on 5, 6, 7 and 8, producing a house edge of about 5.56%. Some tables pay 3:1 on 12, reducing the edge to roughly 2.78%, so checking the felt and paytable is essential.

Proposition bets are usually the most expensive. Any 7 has an edge of about 16.67%, any 12 about 13.89%, and hard 4 or hard 10 around 11.11% under common rules. Their attractive payouts can disguise poor expected value. As with slot volatility, dramatic short-term results do not change the mathematical return; international gaming coverage can provide useful context when comparing how different markets present these wagers, including regional gaming information.

Comparing Common Craps Bets

The following figures assume common US-style craps rules. Individual casino rules, commissions and payout schedules can alter the result, so Australian players should inspect the table layout before placing a wager.

Craps bet	Typical house edge	Main calculation point
Pass line	1.41%	Come-out and point cycle
Don’t pass	1.36%	Includes a push on 12
Come	1.41%	Same maths as pass line
Don’t come	1.36%	Same maths as don’t pass
Odds	0%	Paid at true probability
Place 6 or 8	1.52%	Depends on 7 appearing first
Place 5 or 9	4.00%	Lower payout relative to probability
Field	5.56%	Standard 2:1 payouts on 2 and 12
Any 7	16.67%	High payout but frequent loss
Hard 4 or 10	11.11%	Requires matching dice, not just total

The practical comparison is straightforward: pass-line or come bets paired with permitted odds generally offer the lowest available casino advantage, while proposition bets tend to be far more costly. A lower edge still cannot guarantee profit, and gambling budgets should be treated as entertainment spending rather than income.

Use the formulas to check the exact rules, payout ratios and commission at any Australian venue before wagering. Comparing expected loss across bets gives you a clearer, more disciplined view of craps than relying on streaks, shooter rituals or claims that a number is “due.”